Kamala Harris Ahead of Donald Trump in North Carolina—538 Polling Aggregate

Kamala Harris has overtaken former President Donald Trump in North Carolina for the first time, according to polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight.
FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker shows that Harris is now marginally ahead of Trump in the key swing state, on 45.8 percent to the former president’s 45.4 percent, after having overtaken him with a 0.2 point lead on Thursday.
Trump had previously been narrowly leading Harris in North Carolina, which voted Republican in the last four presidential elections.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
Before Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign on July 21, Trump was leading the president in every poll by between 2 and 12 points.
However, his lead began to reduce when he was facing up against Harris. The vice president first saw a lead in the polls in North Carolina in a poll conducted between July 26 and August 2 by The Cook Political Report, which gave her a 2-point lead over Trump among likely voters when third party candidates were included.
National polling listed on the FiveThirtyEight website also shows Harris maintaining a stable lead over Trump from July 26.
Since then, polls in North Carolina have shown Trump with only a lead of between 1 or 4 points, while other polls have shown the two candidates neck and neck in the state, or Harris in the lead.
The two most recent polls conducted in the state, conducted by Focaldata and SurveyUSA between August 6 and 21, have shown Harris in the lead by between 1 and 4 points.
Harris is currently leading in six of the seven swing states, according to FiveThirtyEight. The only swing state she is not currently leading in is Georgia, where Trump leads her by 0.5 points, on 46.6 percent to her 46.1 percent. In 2020, Biden was elected in Georgia by a narrow margin of 0.2 percent after the state chose Trump in 2016.
Meanwhile, in the other six swing states, Harris is leading Trump. Her biggest lead is in Wisconsin, where Trump is trailing her by 3.8 points, on 44.1 percent to her 47.9 percent. Her lead is narrowest in North Carolina.
Harris’ lead in the swing states represents a significant change in the Democrats’ prospects in the polls after FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker showed Trump leading Biden in 6 of the 7 key battleground states.
However, not all polls in the battleground states have been positive for Harris. Since the Harris campaign launched, polls in the seven swing states have shown some volatility with different polling showing each candidate with leads.
A recent poll conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies between August 12 and August 15 showed Harris leading Trump by between 2 points and 4 points in two swing states—Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In Georgia, Trump and Harris were tied on 46 percent, while in the four other swing states, Trump was leading Harris by between 1 point and 3 points.
Meanwhile, a poll released on Tuesday by Navigator Research showed Harris without the lead in any of the swing states, with the two candidates tied in Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin, while she was behind in Arizona and Pennsylvania. The poll did not include Georgia or Nevada.
A YouGov/CBS poll from August 2 showed neither Trump nor Harris had a significant lead in any of the battleground states, with the two candidates in an overall deadlock.
Success in the swing states is pivotal to winning the election. Harris leads in a number of national poll aggregators, but could win the popular vote and lose the election if the key states back Trump.